IBM plans to build first large-scale quantum computer by 2029

In a landmark announcement that could redefine the future of computation, IBM has unveiled its ambitious roadmap to deliver the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer—IBM Quantum Starling—by 2029. This development marks a critical inflection point in the journey from experimental quantum prototypes to practical, scalable quantum computing systems capable of solving real-world problems.

A Quantum Leap in Computing Power

Starling will be constructed in IBM’s newly planned Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York. Once operational, it is expected to perform 20,000 times more operations than today’s state-of-the-art quantum computers. The machine’s quantum state complexity is so vast that simulating a single instance of it would require more memory than 10^48 of the world’s most powerful supercomputers combined.

This magnitude of performance will enable researchers, industries, and governments to explore and exploit quantum phenomena far beyond the reach of current machines—opening the door to breakthroughs in chemistry, materials science, logistics, and drug discovery.

From Physical Qubits to Logical Qubits

A cornerstone of IBM’s strategy is the development of logical qubits—error-corrected units built from multiple physical qubits working together. Unlike physical qubits, which are highly error-prone, logical qubits can execute far more operations without failing.

Starling will start with 200 logical qubits capable of performing 100 million quantum operations, eventually scaling to IBM Blue Jay, which is planned to handle 2,000 logical qubits and 1 billion operations.

This leap is made possible through quantum low-density parity check (qLDPC) codes, a breakthrough in error correction that IBM previously introduced in Nature. These codes slash the overhead of physical qubits needed for reliable computation by up to 90% compared to previous methods, making large-scale quantum computing feasible with realistic physical infrastructure.

The Engineering Path Forward

IBM's roadmap outlines a systematic plan to achieve fault tolerance and scalability, with clear technology milestones leading up to Starling:

• 2025 – IBM Quantum Loon: Will validate architecture components, including long-range “c-couplers” for connecting distant qubits on a chip.
• 2026 – IBM Quantum Kookaburra: A modular processor that combines quantum logic with memory, laying the foundation for scalable modules.
• 2027 – IBM Quantum Cockatoo: Will entangle multiple Kookaburra modules via “L-couplers,” enabling multi-chip systems that sidestep the limitations of monolithic hardware.

Each of these steps targets a specific engineering challenge: from preparing and measuring logical qubits, to applying universal quantum operations, decoding quantum information in real-time, and doing all of it efficiently and at scale.

The Bigger Picture

“This is the next frontier in quantum computing,” said Arvind Krishna, Chairman and CEO of IBM. “Our expertise across mathematics, physics, and engineering is paving the way for a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer—one that will solve real-world challenges and unlock immense possibilities for business.”

Indeed, fault-tolerant quantum computers promise massive computational advantages for problems that are currently unsolvable, including simulating molecular interactions in chemistry, optimizing supply chains, designing novel materials, and even creating more secure cryptographic systems.

Closing the Gap Between Theory and Reality

While many research labs have demonstrated small-scale quantum systems, none have previously outlined a practical, scalable path to true fault-tolerance without relying on unrealistic levels of hardware or control overhead. IBM’s latest technical papers address these long-standing bottlenecks:

• The first paper outlines how qLDPC codes allow for efficient execution of quantum programs.
• The second details real-time decoding strategies using classical computing to identify and correct quantum errors during operations.

A Historic Technological Moment

With Quantum Starling, IBM is aiming to shift quantum computing from theoretical promise to practical tool. If successful, this milestone won’t just advance computing—it will reshape entire industries.

By combining cutting-edge error correction, innovative processor architecture, and a clear development roadmap, IBM is positioning itself as a leader in a new computational era—where quantum advantage could finally meet real-world application.